One unseasonably cool June day shouldn’t mitigate concerns about global climate changes. That’s why I wonder at widespread speculation over how consumers may spend their “economic stimulus” tax rebates.

Under legislation passed in February, tax-rebate checks for $300 to $600 per individual taxpayer and up to $1,200 for couples were to be sent out in late May or early June. Larry Miller, restaurant analyst for RBC Capital Markets in Atlanta, tells clients that RBC’s research finds that consumers will spend upward of one-third of their rebate on basic and discretionary items and that, in May, 82% of consumers said they planned to spend some portion at restaurants. That’s encouraging, although other RBC data shows that 10% of consumers plan to spend more at restaurants over the next 90 days and 35% plan to spend less.

The NPD Group in Port Washington, N.Y., also is upbeat. Says Bonnie Riggs, NPD Group restaurant industry analyst, “It’s likely that consumers will behave in the same way they did after receiving their 2001 tax rebate, and the restaurant industry should at the very least enjoy a short-term boost.” Not so fast, counters Chicago-based Technomic Inc. It contends that only 9% of consumers say they plan to spend their economic-stimulus check on dining out. “Unfortunately, it does not appear the restaurant industry will be a beneficiary of the stimulus program,” says Bob Goldin, Technomic executive vice president.

If consumers spend even 10% of their rebate—or $30 to $60 per person—on food away from home, that would help at a time when operators are fighting for every transaction. But what happens next month, when gas prices remain high (if they don’t rise) and consumers wonder how they will pay their July credit-card balance?

Industry veteran Lane Cardwell, who writes the Next Big Thing blog on our sister publication Chain Leader’s Web site (chainleader.com), focuses on the big picture rather than on how good foodservice’s June sales might be. He cautions that a sea change in consumer perceptions of the price-value balance is taking place. “If your plan for battling this period of customer softness is already a few months old, it is time to revisit it and challenge whether it is aggressive enough to resonate with a customer who feels that they are under siege financially,” he wrote in a recent posting.

In his Starters blog on rimag.com, Chris Muller has been outlining five significant shifts in consumer behavior that will have an impact on foodservice over the next decade at least.

One operator with whom I spoke at last month’s National Restaurant Association Restaurant, Hotel-Motel Show told me his plan is to “make sure we’re providing good food, good value and a good time—I don’t know what else we can do.” Keeping true to that path may provide the most long-lasting stimulus for the industry.

shume@reedbusiness.com