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A Winter of Discontent?
January 8, 2008
After bleak announcements at the end of 2007 from the National Restaurant Association and a number of leading companies--Darden and Ruth’s Chris Steak House, for example--no one should doubt that the first quarter of 2008 is going to be the restaurant industry’s “winter of our discontent,” to borrow the phrase from Shakespeare’s “Richard III.” The stock market certainly told us so when publicly traded restaurant stocks took a dive at the beginning of this year.
Add to that remarkably awful winter weather in every area of the country: In the Northeast, Northwest, Mountain West, Central States and even the Southeast, storms have made it all but impossible for restaurants to open each day, much less build on last year’s comp-store sales figures. And with energy costs soaring—again--this is hardly the time to consider that it might be a good time for the industry.
But, the quote from the future “Richard III,” does not finish with the first line. The character actually is saying that things are looking better, and that in the bleak of winter’s discontent, a changing of the guard has brought on an early summer.
“…Made glorious summer by this son of York ;
And all the clouds that low'r'd upon our house
In the deep bosom of the ocean buried.”
Like Richard’s vision, what operators need to look for in these seeming times of darkness is the warmth of the new idea, the sunrise of the emerging concept, or to see the opportunities that are occurring behind the clouds of the real estate market for affordable site selection and lowered construction costs.
Great fortunes are made by investing in down economies, and by the creativity that comes from hardship. This new year holds the promise for some of glorious summer, not winter. As I’ve mentioned in previous postings, innovation happens in the times of uncertainty and distress.
2008 will be both a winter of challenges, and a summer of new ideas, at least for those ready to see the opportunities.Posted by Chris Muller on January 8, 2008 | Comments (0)