Restaurants and Institutions

Chris Muller

What Restaurants Can Learn From Presidential Demographics
March 7, 2008

Chris Muller

The study of demographics is like reading tomorrow’s newspaper today. Take a good hard look at population “cohorts”—statisticians’ term for segments such as age groups-- and you can see the future: future consumption needs, future trends, future markets. Demographics frames customer perspectives and gives market watchers insight into consumer behavior.

For a very current example, put aside any political-party affiliation and look at the three leading candidates for president. Pretend for a moment that they are just “consumer products” being sold to the mass market. Which demographic cohort do they each appeal to with their branding strategies? What kind of restaurant would they feel most at home visiting?

At 71, John McCain came of age in the early 1960s when he was a young naval aviator during the Cuban Missile Crisis and then during the Vietnam War. He speaks the language of his decidedly masculine generation. Fine dining, upscale steakhouses, a dry-gin martini or a glass of scotch are what constitute a great meal for him. Morton’s of Chicago, Ruth’s Chris Steak House, The Capital Grille and, for value, Outback Steakhouse are the aspirational choices.

Just turning 60 means that Hillary Clinton came of age a decade later, her experiences framed by the Civil Rights Movement and the “The Feminine Mystique.” Her core demographic is women who fought in the “Gender Wars.” Chardonnay, Brie, a nice piece of fish and a side salad were the rage then and still work well in a restaurant today (OK, substitute Merlot to be current). To add a touch of complexity, traditional casual/theme menus that welcome families also fit. Spago and The Cheesecake Factory are two upscale touchstones, while Red Lobster, Applebee’s, Olive Garden and Perkins are great anytime.

At 46, Barack Obama is a generational product of the “After- events” time period: after the Cold War and post Berlin Wall, after forced school integration, after the personal computer, after the casual/theme-restaurant revolution. Grazing, gourmet pizza, sushi, and café latte came of age with him. Neither overtly masculine nor feminine restaurants such as Starbucks, P.F. Chang’s, Seasons 52, Houston’s and Panera Bread fit nicely into this group sensibility.

But the question to be asked is who gets the consumer generation now called the Millennials, born after 1982 and completely at home with social networking on their ubiquitous computers or texting on their ever-present cellphones? They were raised on Chipotle, Subway, El Pollo Loco and supermarket convenience foods cooked in a microwave. More than a quarter of today’s college students say they prefer a vegetarian diet, they don’t watch mass-market TV commercials, and they don’t want to be labeled as brand loyal. Is it time to take a more informed look at this rising demographic cohort?[1]

By the way, did you happen to notice that by 2010 there will be more Americans under the age of 25 than there are in the Baby Boom generation? You might also notice that this cohort has decided to vote in 2008. Do they vote for the same presidential “consumer product” that you do?

--Chris Muller

Posted by Chris Muller on March 7, 2008 | Comments (1)